The Armenia of East Africa
Mesfin Arega
The recent ultrafast resurgence of TPLF can only be an engineered resurgence, and the engineer can be none other than Abiy Ahmed. But why? Why would Abiy Ahmed collude with Mr. Blinken to revive TPLF from its deathbed?
The Oromo tribalist Abiy Ahmed can implement his Oromuma plan of building an Oromo empire over the ruins of Ethiopia only if he makes the Amhara region too week to frustrate his plan. The Amhara region is a microcosm of Ethiopia containing, unlike all other regions of Ethiopia, autonomous and semi-autonomous zones within it. Strong Amhara region is necessary (if not sufficient) for strong Ethiopia. If Welkait and Raya zones (called by TPLF “western and southern Tigray” after annexation) are allowed to rejoin their rightful Amhara region, the region will be the most powerful of all regions of Ethiopia in virtually all aspects (be it population or natural resources), rendering Abiy Ahmed’s Oromuma dream of Oromizing Ethiopia forever irredeemable. Therefore, Abiy Ahmed will leave no stone unturned to make Amhara region as weak as possible.
Likewise, the Amhara regional force is the most diverse of all forces in the country, as diverse as Ethiopia itself. As such, this regional force is the last line of defense to save Ethiopia from any anti-Ethiopia Oromuma force Abiy Ahmed can muster be it Oromia Regional Force or Oneg Shene (the military wing of OLF). Therefore, Abiy Ahmed will prolong the conflict in Tigray for as long as possible so as to allow TPLF (in collaboration with the OLF-dominated federal defense force) massacre as many Amhara regional force soldiers as possible by forcing them to be cannon fodders in battles whose outcomes are predetermined.
For Abiy Ahmed, TPLF is an indispensable ally in dismantling Ethiopia, but an arche foe when the time comes to share the spoils of dismantled Ethiopia. Therefore, on the one hand he wants to limit TPLF’s power so that it does not pose any meaningful threat to his upcoming Oromo empire, but on the other hand he wants TPLF to be strong enough to deal with Amhara. In so far as it makes Amhara region week, he supports TPLF’s annexation of Amhara land, just like he implicitly supports Sudan’s annexation of Amhara land by keeping silent about it. However, if TPLF annexes both “Western Tigray” and “Southern Tigray”, it will be too strong for Abiy Ahmed and his future Oromo empire. This is why Abiy Ahmed used Mr. Blinken to demand the “Transitional Government of Tigray” take “effective control” of only “Western Tigray” not evening mentioning “Southern Tigray”.
Therefore, for Abiy Ahmed and for Amhara-haters in western governments, the best of all possible scenarios is “Western Tigray” for the soon to be created Tigray Republic, and “Southern Tigray” for the soon to be born Oromo Empire so that, together with Sudan, these three anti-Amhara countries will completely encircle the severely weakened Amhara region, making it the Armenia of East Africa.
Email: Mesfin Arega mesfin.arega@gmail.com